It’s pretty simple. My name is Jenny and I was paralyzed in a skiing accident More...
Dear Society, Why Don’t You See Different as Beautiful?
Often I feel as though I get so caught up in the flow of life that what is most More...
Myths and Facts About People with Disabilities
Everybody's fighting some kind of stereotype, and people with disabilities are n More...
International Day of Persons with Disabilities, 3 December 2014
Sustainable Development: The Promise of Technology More...
A month ago... More...
World Bank Projects Sluggish Growth for the South East European Economies in 2011 and 2012
While the region has made significant progress over recent years, it is at risk from the effects of a further global slowdown and needs to adopt policies that support stability and longer term growth
SARAJEVO, November 15, 2011 – While a global slowdown and recent turbulence in the Euro zone (EZ) have shaken economies of the six countries in South East Europe (SEE6), their deeper integration with the European Union (EU) remains the best long term prospect for their growth, according to the new World Bank “South East Europe Regular Economic Report” (SEE RER), released today.
This is the first of a series of regular reports which will come out semi-annually. “Our projections are for the growth in this region of 2.5 percent in 2011 and 2.1 percent in 2012,” says Ron Hood, Lead Economist in the World Bank’s Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Sector Unit in the Europe and Central Asia region and lead author of the report. “However, even these modest growth projections assume that the Eurozone crisis is solved in an orderly manner. Should the crisis worsen, economic growth in these countries could be much worse.” The effects of a further global slowdown and the prolonged uncertainties around the Eurozone crisis will influence SEE6 economies through trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign banks, and remittances, according to the report.
All these transmission channels would be affected by deeper economic and financial tensions in the EU and the Eurozone. Trade with the EU is a key driver of exports and overall economic growth for SEE6 countries, amounting to between 30 percent and almost half of their GDP. In 2010, 58.2 percent of total SEE6 exports were to the EU, with the lion’s share going to Italy and Germany. After a drop by 14.7 percent in 2009, exports marked a robust growth by 20 percent in 2010, peaked at 29.7 percent in the first quarter of 2011 year on year, and have subsequently slowed. Imports have a similar dynamics but with a deeper decline in 2009 and a more muted recovery. As a consequence, both the trade balance and the current account deficit (CAD) for the region improved by about 10 percentage points in 2010 compared to 2008. However, despite recent improvements CADs still remain high, particularly in Montenegro and Kosovo, says the report.
Beyond trade, EU investors are also the largest aggregate provider of FDI to the region, with net inflows worth over 2 percent of the Western Balkans GDP. Likewise, Eurozone countries represent a significant source of remittances to all the SEE6 countries, particularly for Kosovo, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. The presence of foreign banks creates another channel of potential influence. The share of foreign banks in the total assets of the region’s banking system stands at around 89 percent. “Whereas overall banking systems in SEE6 countries appear resilient, with high liquidity and significant capital buffers, existing credit and funding risks are being magnified in the region, driven primarily by adverse developments in the EU, an overhang of non-performing loans from banks in many SEE6 countries, and slowing economic growth,” warns Hood.
“Almost all foreign banks in SEE6 are from EU countries, with a comparatively high share of Greek and Italian owned banks. Further stress on their respective parent banks could potentially create another credit crunch in the region.” Hood emphasizes that, “Financing is likely to be a constraint going forward. External debt has grown and a decline in SEE6 growth may cut government revenues, raising pressures on public finance.” The report recommends that authorities in SEE6 countries pursue fiscal prudence, rebuild fiscal buffers, and be prepared for further expenditure consolidation. Unfortunately, the fiscal performance has deteriorated in all countries since 2008, and few countries in the region still have room to accommodate a worsening of the crisis through allowing automatic stabilizers to operate. With the exception of Kosovo, no country has sizable deposits to draw down. Thus several countries should accelerate fiscal consolidation, with pensions and wage bills being important areas of focus, says the report. While immediate financing needs of fiscal deficits appear to have been secured, longer term prospects will remain difficult, warns the SEE RER.
The sharp rise of gross external and government debt to GDP between 2008 and 2010 is mainly attributed to government borrowing aimed at financing fiscal deficits used to smooth out crisis effects. The SEE6 group is heterogeneous regarding the level of external debt, with the total debt in Montenegro and Serbia above the regional average, while Albania has the biggest public debt as a percentage of GDP. Improving employment opportunities remains another major long term challenge for the SEE6, concludes the report. The high level of unemployment among youth and the low participation of women is a striking feature of the SEE6 labor market. Moreover, much of the unemployment is long term and several countries have aging populations. “Future growth will need to be driven more by investment and improvements in productivity that enhance competitiveness and productive capacity, rather than by the externally financed consumption and investment in real estate and other bubble assets,” says Jane Armitage, World Bank Country Director and Regional Coordinator for South East Europe.
“Countries in South East Europe need to address longstanding structural reform challenges. This will allow them to take better advantage of the access to markets, inflows of foreign direct investment, bank finance, and remittances that closer integration with the EU offers.” The special feature of the report is the focus on education, and on Research and Development (R&D) and Innovation.
The ways of integration
Finding a College That Suits Students “With Special Needs”
Another silver medal for Serbia
The Annual march for Disabled Visibility in Madrid
Good Practise/Bad Practice
UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD)
Free our People!
All... but not retard.
European Day of Disabled People 2008
Parents' fury at 'Down's Syndrome dolls'
Eurobarometer on discrimination
Less sex, less fun
Coming Soon, a Braille Silver Dollar
Roads to integration
Disability proves no barrier to Olympic inclusion
Media and Disability
Media and disability
Are there any changes in preparations for Paraolympics?
U.N Issues Stamps to Commemorate Disability Treaty
Beijing 'sorry' for offending disabled
Government unveils new package for disabled children
China Sets Gold Standard in Offending Disabled
Way to Independence
Wishes could come true
Seminar on reforms of social protection system
National Conference on Gender Equality
Mobility International Seeks Young Adults
Wal-Mart settles with applicant with disability [USA]
First Contestant with a Disability to Compete for Miss USA Title
INFO - CENTER
INACCESSIBILITY IS DISCRIMINATION!
UN Convention on PWDs rights
Conference on National strategy for Youth
Bits and pieces from Slovenija
Meeting with Bozidar Djelic
Focus group “Social services for PWDs“
SHARE SEE Grantee Training
Make a date
It's Okay to Stare... Then Engage a Question!
Sombor hosted workshop "sex, gender, disability"
Dancing Beyond Disability
Seminar HUMAN BEING AND ITS ENVIRONMENT
Project From Alternative to Standardisation
The regional group of experts in social service provision for people with disabilities
Youth Regional conference
Are we going to Europe?
Disability Guide to Disneyland Paris
POI Conference "From cause to the result: New approaches towards disability"
Open Letter to the Government, Members of National Assembly Competent Institutions and Policy Makers
Centre plan for disabled actors
An Autistic Dream
MEETING ON DISABILITY ISSUES IN SERBIA
A PARAGIDM SHIFT FROM 'CHARITY' TO 'RIGHTS AND DIGNITY'
New Visa rules
Disabled rights champion honoured
Map of the World
Serbia is going to sign UN CRPD
WORKSHOP IN CAIRO
Seminar on Women with Disabilities
Adaptation of living environment for Persons with Disabilities
Program „Contact Organisations from the Civil Society”
Community Living for Disabled People Must Be Made a Priority
Celebrating 3rd December
Celebrating the 3rd December 2007
FILM FESTIVAL OBSERVING 3 DECEMBER
National Umbrella Organisation mark 3rd of December
ENDING OF SHARE SEE TRAINING PROGRAM
SHARE SEE IV MODULE – NISKA BANJA
IMPORTANT DAYS TO CELEBRATE
To Ministry of Labor and Social Policy
SHARE SEE training in Predejane
Recognising the Rights of Girls and Women with Disabilities
SHARE SEE IV MODULE IN SMEDEREVO
Creation the Local Plans of Actions in Disability Area
SHARE SEE IV MODULE – BELGRADE
TODAY IS THE DAY OF UN
Goodbye mouse hello voice controls
INTERNATIONAL DAY OF POVERTY REDUCTION
ADA RESTORATION ACTION CENTER
WHERE IS SERBIA
Disability Rights Treaty on Verge of Making History?
The Days of European Heritage in Belgrade, 20-30 of September
Council of Europe in Zagreb
Virtual interpreter turns speech into sign language
Strasbourg Freedom Drive
Jagodina hosted the Third Table tennis tournament "Jagodina Trophy"
Hungary ratified UN Convention
Convention on Child Protection
UN convention on disability rights reaches milestone in signatories
IIIrd INTERNATIONAL SMILING CHILD FESTIVAL
Your dressing room on the Internet
Chosen home life a basic right for disabled people
What Can They Do?
III Module of trainings accomplished
SHARE SEE trainings
Project with young activists finished
Special EUROBAROMETER 263 “Discrimination in the European Union”
Seminar on Independent Living in Macedonia
It's Deaf Awareness Week 7-13 May
International Day of Families (15 May)
Social services in South East Europe
Test on Autism
UN Headquarters, New York, NY
Presentation the UN Convention in Belgrade
Presentation of UN Convention on rights of persons with disabilities in Jagodina
SHARE SEE training in Belgrade
SHARE SEE training for Leskovac cluster
SHARE SEE Module II in Nis
The U.S. Embassy has a pleasure to invite you
SHARE SEE trainings Module II
I N T E R V I E W
UN Study of Violence Against Women Finds 50% of Disabled Women Experience Abuse
Launch of the Year of Equal Opportunities
Survey reveals social attitudes to disability
Homes that Meet Life’s Changing Needs
Awards for the best Campaign, PAs and users within the PASS project
Design for Everyone, Disabled or Not
EDUCATION FOR MEMBERS OF POLITICAL PARTIES IN NOVI SAD ON BASIC FACTS ON DISABILITY ISSUES!
UN Convention adopted
Tribune on UN Convention in Novi Sad
Round table in Sarajevo
Evropean Union and Persons with Disabilities
Promotion of International Convention on Rights of Persons with Disabilities
PASS presentation in Bosnia and Herzegovina
International Day of Disabled Persons
World Congress on Disability
N. Korea puts disabled in camps
European Conference in St Petersburg
UN reward to Poland
SHARE SEE Training in Belgrade
Antidiscriminatory practice in Norway
SHARE SEE Training in Leskovac
DISABLED PEOPLE FROM SPANISH INDEPENDENT LIVING MOVEMENT HAVE CANCELLED THEIR LOCK IN
8th Session of the Ad Hoc Committee on the Rights and Dignity of Persons
UN AGREES ON DISABILITY TREATY TEXT
Geneva, 23 August 2006
SHARE SEE Training in Smederevo
SHARE SEE Training in Krusevac
UN Convention - 13 August 2006
Independent living hope
8th Conference of the European Union of Supported Employment
The implementation of Poverty Reduction Strategy goes on
Independent Living seminar in Tirana
E-ACCESSIBILITY TO BE THEME FOR INTERNATIONAL DAY
New CIL branch
CIL Sport Competition
United Nations takes a big step towards accessibility
Social service for PWDs in the Republic of Serbia
New EU diversity spot airing on MTV
Study visits in Brussels for delegates of disabled people organisations from the Western Balkans on 27-29 June 2006
EDF Annual General Meeting
Brochure on CIL 10th Anniversary